Friday, June 27, 2008
It's easy to predict the past
I recently had a conversation with a global-warming type person...where he described how scientist have developed climate models that can now accurately predicate weather patterns for the last 200+ years (a validation that the model will work for 200 years in the future)....my response....(not politically correct perhaps) was that it's easy to predict the past. Then I started to think that this is the same thinking used for project planning...we use tools to predict the future based on the tool's ability to accurately predict the past. MS Project, if used to track past task, resource allocations, etc. is a good example of a tool to accurately predict the past...but not a good one for future looking events...why? Chaos theory? Most likely.
As Mr Einstein said We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
Looking in the past we ask 'why' did something happen - looking in the future we should be asking 'how' can we make it happen. Different questions require different thinking, tools, etc.
What's the answer....